iPredict

Harness the wisdom of the crowd

iPredict is New Zealand's first real-money prediction market – a trading site which uses a crowd's wisdom to predict the likelihood of future events.

The University of Iowa invented prediction markets in 1988 and research has shown them to be markedly more accurate than polls. The difference is that those trading on the site are asked what they think will happen, not what they'd like to happen.

In their simplest form, stocks on iPredict pay $1 if an event comes true, and nothing if it doesn't. If stocks are selling at 60c, it means the market believes there is a 60% chance of that prediction coming true. If a buyer thought the odds of the prediction coming true were higher, they might buy a lot of stock and this would drive up the price.

iPredict is a joint venture from Viclink and the Victoria University-based New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation (ISCR). It is owned by Victoria University and ISCR.

iPredict was established primarily as a research tool and launched in September 2008.